Modern Population Transition Theories (Demographic Transition) part 2

 Okay, here are the notes from the provided audio transcript on Population Theories, focusing on the Demographic Transition Models:

Topic: Modern Population Transition Theories (Demographic Transition)

1. Recap & Introduction (0:00 - 0:35)

* Previous discussion: Malthusian Theory, Edwin Cannan's Theory.

* Current Focus: Modern population transition theories developed by modern economists.

* Core Concept: Examining the relationship between Birth Rate (Janana Rate), Death Rate (Marana Rate), and Economic Development (Arthika Abhivruddi).

* Key Proponents (Initial mention): Thompson and Notestein.

* These theories analyze how changes in birth and death rates correlate with stages of economic development.

2. Models Overview (0:45 - 1:11)

* Different models exist:

* Three-Stage Model

* Four-Stage Model

* Five-Stage Model

* All models are based on comparing the differences and interplay between Birth Rate, Death Rate, and Economic Development over time.

3. Three-Stage Demographic Transition Model (1:12 - 3:14)

* Theorists: Kohr and Hever (కోర్ మరియు హేవర్లు)

* Compares population characteristics across different development levels:

* Underdeveloped/Backward Nations

* Developing Nations

* Developed Nations

* Stage 1: High Stationary

* Applies to: Underdeveloped / Low-income nations.

* Characteristics:

* High Birth Rate

* High Death Rate

* Birth and Death rates are roughly equal = Slow/Stable population growth.

* Low Economic Development, low production capacity.

* Lack of advanced medical/technical knowledge.

* India Example: Conditions before 1921.

* Stage 2: Early Expanding

* Applies to: Developing nations.

* Characteristics:

* Death Rate falls significantly (due to improved healthcare, sanitation, nutrition).

* Birth Rate remains high or falls much slower than the death rate.

* Result: Population Explosion (జనాభా విజృంభన) because Birth Rate > Death Rate.

* Economic development starts, shift towards industrialization.

* India Example: Conditions after 1921. India is considered to be in this stage according to this model.

* Stage 3: Low Stationary / Late Expanding

* Applies to: Developed nations.

* Characteristics:

* Low Birth Rate

* Low Death Rate

* Rates are low and roughly equal = Stable or very slow population growth.

* High Economic Development, high standard of living.

* Labour force primarily in industrial/service sectors.

* Widespread literacy (including female), family planning common.

4. Four-Stage Demographic Transition Model (3:15 - 5:54)

* Theorist: Sarmax / Sarmaks (సర్ మాక్స్)

* Builds upon the 3-stage model.

* Stage 1: Same as Kohr & Hever's Stage 1 (High BR, High DR, Stable Pop).

* Stage 2: Same as Kohr & Hever's Stage 2 (High BR, Rapidly Falling DR, Pop. Explosion).

* Stage 3: Late Expanding (Key Distinction)

* Birth Rate starts falling significantly.

* Death Rate is already low and stabilizes.

* Result: Population continues to grow, but at a slowing/decreasing rate. (BR > DR, but the gap narrows).

* Stage 4: Same as Kohr & Hever's Stage 3 (Low BR, Low DR, Stable/Slow Pop).

* Comparison: Sarmax splits Kohr/Hever's Stage 2 into two (his Stages 2 & 3) and renames their Stage 3 as his Stage 4.

5. Five-Stage Demographic Transition Model (9:43 - 11:31)

* Theorist: C.P. Blacker (సిపి బ్లాకర్)

* Extends the 4-stage model.

* Stages 1-4: Broadly similar to Sarmax's model.

* Stage 5: Declining (Key Addition)

* Birth Rate falls below the Death Rate (BR < DR).

* Death Rate remains low.

* Result: Population Decline.

* Context: May occur due to extremely low fertility, major catastrophes, pandemics etc. Not yet a widespread global phenomenon.

* India Context: India has not reached this stage.

6. World Population Growth Trends & Milestones (24:24 - 28:14)

* Focus on time taken to add 1 Billion (100 Crore) people:

* 1 Billion: ~1830

* 2 Billion: ~1930 (100 years)

* 3 Billion: ~1960 (30 years)

* 4 Billion: ~1975 (15 years)

* 5 Billion: ~1987 (12 years) - July 11th (World Population Day)

* 6 Billion: ~1999 (12 years) - Oct 12th

* 7 Billion: ~2011 (12 years) - Oct 31st

* 8 Billion: ~2022 (11 years) - Nov 15th ("Day of 8 Billion")

* Current World Population (context of audio): 8 Billion (800 Crore).

* Exam Note: APPSC Group 1 asked about the period 1987-1999 (growth from 5 to 6 billion).

7. India's Population Context (Consolidated)

* Stages: Pre-1921 (Stage 1), Post-1921 (Entered Stage 2). Currently considered in Stage 2/Early Stage 3.

* Growth Rate (2011): India (1.64%) > World Avg (1.23%) > China (0.73%).

* Share of World Pop: Increased from 14.2% (1950) to 17.5% (2011). China's decreased from 22% to 19.5% in the same period.

* Surpassing China: Projections varied (PRB: 2030, American Bureau: 2025, Indian Bureau: 2022). India actually surpassed China around 2023/24. Current Pop (2024 context): India ~144 Cr, China ~142 Cr.

* Past Difference: In 1950, China's population share was significantly larger. By 2011, the gap narrowed considerably (only 2% difference in world share).

8. Other Key Population Metrics & Projections (37:38 - 40:43)

* Lowest Population: Vatican City.

* Highest Density: Bangladesh.

* Highest Growth Rate Country: Nigeria.

* Lowest Growth Rate Country: Russia.

* Population Reference Bureau (PRB) Projections:

* By 2050, India's population 25% higher than China's.

* World population 9.9 Billion by 2050.

* Anticipated 30 crore increase in India's population in the next 30 years (from 2020s).

9. Characteristics of Stage 1 (Detailed from 7:53 - 9:13)

* Labour force heavily dependent on agriculture.

* Low per capita income.

* Low standard of living.

* High prevalence of fatal infectious diseases, lack of control measures.

* High illiteracy.

* Lack of awareness/use of family planning.

* Early marriages common.

* Strong influence of social customs and traditions favouring larger families.

10. Characteristics of Stage 2 (Detailed from 10:25 - 11:24)

* Shift from agriculture to industry begins.

* Improved income and nutrition lead to falling death rates.

* Medical facilities improve, reducing death rates.

* Literacy increases, but female literacy/empowerment lags, keeping birth rates relatively high initially.

* The gap between falling death rates and slower-falling birth rates causes population explosion.

11. Characteristics of Stage 3/4 (Developed Stage) (Detailed from 12:12 - 12:58)

* Labour force concentrated in PIS (Industrial/Service) sectors.

* High per capita income and standard of living.

* Low death rates due to advanced healthcare and disease control.

* High literacy, including female literacy and empowerment.

* Widespread adoption of family planning, preference for smaller families.

* Population stabilizes at low birth and death rates.

This structure covers the theories, stages, key characteristics, theorists, global trends, and specific Indian context discussed in the audio.